Hurricane and Tropical Forecast

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 241123
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of Great Abaco
Island in the Bahamas, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)

...TINY LEE A LITTLE STRONGER...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 24
 the center of Lee was located near 31.4, -49.9
 with movement SE at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 982 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 26

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

...TINY LEE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 49.9W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 49.9 West. Lee is moving toward
the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue during the next 24 hours. A turn toward the southwest or
west-southwest is expected by late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Lee could be near major hurricane strength on Monday.

Lee is a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds only extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 26

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 241448
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  49.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  49.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  50.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.1N  49.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.7N  48.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N  49.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.1N  50.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 30.7N  51.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 32.2N  52.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 35.0N  50.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N  49.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 26

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 241449
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

The rapid intensification of Lee appears to have slowed for now.
Lee has a well-defined 10 to 15 n mi wide eye, but the cloud tops
surrounding the eye have not cooled since the previous advisory.
Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and
UW/CIMSS all support 75 to 80 kt, and the initial intensity is set
at 80 kt.

The intensity forecast of the small hurricane is somewhat tricky.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, Lee is forecast to remain
in a low-shear environment for the next few days, but the slow
motion of the hurricane is likely to cause upwelling and a decrease
in sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane.  Although the
intensity guidance is slightly lower this cycle, the new NHC
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and brings Lee to near
major hurricane strength within the next 24 to 36 hours.  Late in
the period decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear
should impart a weakening trend.

Lee has turned southeastward.  The track models are similar with
the overall forecast scenario of Lee moving slowly southeastward
today, then turning west-southwestward or westward late Monday and
Tuesday as a high pressure ridge builds to the north and northwest
of the hurricane. This ridge is forecast to weaken later in the
week, with Lee turning northward, then northeastward ahead of Maria
as the mid-latitude westerlies dip southward.  There is a large
bifurcation in the guidance models after about 48 hours, due to the
location and timing of recurvature.  The NHC track leans closer to
the ECMWF and latest European ensemble mean, but the track forecast
is of low confidence.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 31.4N  49.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 31.1N  49.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 30.7N  48.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 30.2N  49.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 30.1N  50.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 30.7N  51.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 32.2N  52.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 35.0N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017


000
FONT14 KNHC 241449
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Hurricane Lee Graphics


Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 14:54:27 GMT

Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 15:23:35 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...MARIA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...
 As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 24
 the center of Maria was located near 28.7, -72.9
 with movement N at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 947 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 34

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 241442
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...MARIA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 72.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor
the progress of Maria.  Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for a portion of the coast later today.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 72.9 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday night.  On
the forecast track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of
the southeast coast of the United States during the day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next
24 hours, but gradual weakening is expected by Monday night or
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast later today.  Swells also
continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern
coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 34

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 241441
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.  TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  72.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT.......100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......210NE 200SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  72.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N  72.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.7N  73.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.8N  73.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.9N  73.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.9N  73.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.4N  73.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 35.5N  71.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 36.5N  68.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N  72.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 34

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 241443
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have measured 700-mb
flight-level winds of 101 to 117 kt over the eastern and
southeastern portion of the Maria this morning.  However, surface
wind estimates from the SFMR suggest that these winds are not mixing
to the surface at the usual efficiency, as the highest SFMR winds on
both flights have been around 80 kt.  Based on a blend of the
flight-level and SFMR winds the initial wind speed has been reduced
to 90 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 350/8 kt. A north-northwestward to
northward motion is expected over the next 2 to 3 days while Maria
is steered between a cut-off low/trough over the southeastern U.S.
and eastern Gulf of Mexico, and a subtropical ridge over the
southwestern Atlantic.  Maria is predicted to slow down within the
next couple of days as a high pressure ridge builds to the north of
the hurricane.  After 72 h, Maria should turn east-northeastward as
the ridge to the north weakens and a broad mid-latitude trough
begins to move eastward over the northern United States.  The
dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on this overall
scenario, but there remains a fair amount of spread on the timing of
recurvature, with the ECMWF a little farther west and slower than
much of the remainder of the guidance.  The updated NHC track is
between the ECWMF and the various consensus aids, and very close to
the previous official forecast.  Since Maria is a large hurricane,
the associated tropical-storm-force winds could reach a portion of
the North Carolina coast by mid-week regardless of the exact
forecast track.

Some fluctuations in intensity could still occur during the next
day or so while Maria moves over warm water and remains in a low
shear environment.  Later in the forecast period, cooler waters
from the wake of Hurricane Jose that traversed the same area last
week will likely cause a gradual decrease in intensity.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast by midweek.  Interests along the
coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the
progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for part of this area later today.

2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-
Atlantic coast today.  These swells will likely cause dangerous
surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of
the week.  For more information, please monitor information from
your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 28.7N  72.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 29.7N  73.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 30.8N  73.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 31.9N  73.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 32.9N  73.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 34.4N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 35.5N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 36.5N  68.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017


000
FONT15 KNHC 241442
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  34                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   2(14)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)   3(21)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  10(24)   3(27)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)   2(17)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   9(26)   3(29)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
WALLOPS CDA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   5(16)   2(18)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  18(24)   8(32)   1(33)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  20(26)   8(34)   2(36)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  22(29)   9(38)   1(39)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)  23(35)  10(45)   X(45)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   1(14)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  13(19)   4(23)   1(24)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   3( 3)  10(13)  18(31)  26(57)  10(67)   1(68)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   8(24)   X(24)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   3(15)   X(15)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)  21(40)   7(47)   1(48)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
CHERRY PT NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   4( 4)   8(12)  15(27)  22(49)   7(56)   1(57)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   1(14)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   3( 3)   8(11)  12(23)  22(45)   7(52)   1(53)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)  17(32)   5(37)   1(38)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)  14(27)   4(31)   1(32)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)  12(26)   4(30)   X(30)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   8(17)   3(20)   1(21)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   8(14)   3(17)   X(17)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   1(13)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Hurricane Maria Graphics


Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 14:48:25 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 15:30:01 GMT